周(zhou)期行(xing)業(ye)市場表現。8月1日,上證綜指跌(die)0.87%,周(zhou)期各行(xing)業(ye)指數除煤炭外均(jun)出現下跌(die)。各行(xing)業(ye)指數表現:鋼鐵指數-0.53%、石(shi)化-0.9%、基礎化工-1.78%、房地(di)產-1.14%、煤炭0.43%、有色(se)金屬-0.27%。

　　基礎化工:全球最大(da)(da)(da)的(de)(de)維生(sheng)素(su)DSM限產(chan)(chan),VE、VA迎來大(da)(da)(da)周期(qi)(qi)。DSM是全球最大(da)(da)(da)的(de)(de)維生(sheng)素(su)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)企(qi)業(ye),其(qi)瑞士工廠,因裝(zhuang)置和技術(shu)老舊,工業(ye)工程(cheng)不足,當地政(zheng)府要(yao)求整(zheng)改,限制(zhi)污水排放,并(bing)給(gei)出(chu)明確的(de)(de)排放目標,DSM被迫(po)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)廠區(qu)裝(zhuang)置負(fu)荷30%以(yi)上(shang);DSM主要(yao)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)VA、VE,蝦青素(su)、胡蘿卜素(su)等(deng)產(chan)(chan)品,其(qi)廠區(qu)內VA、VE占全球產(chan)(chan)能的(de)(de)30%,負(fu)荷下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)30%以(yi)上(shang),全球供(gong)給(gei)至(zhi)少減少10%。在VA、VE需求向好、供(gong)給(gei)收(shou)縮(suo)的(de)(de)大(da)(da)(da)背景下(xia)(xia),全球最大(da)(da)(da)的(de)(de)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)企(qi)業(ye)DSM被迫(po)限產(chan)(chan),且限產(chan)(chan)周期(qi)(qi)長,產(chan)(chan)量影(ying)響大(da)(da)(da),VA、VE的(de)(de)景氣度將被大(da)(da)(da)幅放大(da)(da)(da),周期(qi)(qi)也將被大(da)(da)(da)幅拉長,VA、VE迎來超長景氣大(da)(da)(da)周期(qi)(qi)。

　　有(you)色(se)(se)金(jin)屬:亞(ya)(ya)太(tai)科技擬在香(xiang)(xiang)港(gang)(gang)設(she)(she)立(li)全資(zi)子(zi)公(gong)司(si)。亞(ya)(ya)太(tai)科技發(fa)布(bu)公(gong)告,公(gong)司(si)第三(san)屆董事會第十九次會議(yi)審議(yi)通過了《關于在香(xiang)(xiang)港(gang)(gang)投(tou)資(zi)設(she)(she)立(li)全資(zi)子(zi)公(gong)司(si)的(de)議(yi)案》,同意公(gong)司(si)根據戰略(lve)發(fa)展(zhan)和(he)海外業(ye)務拓展(zhan)需要,在香(xiang)(xiang)港(gang)(gang)投(tou)資(zi)設(she)(she)立(li)全資(zi)子(zi)公(gong)司(si)(亞(ya)(ya)太(tai)香(xiang)(xiang)港(gang)(gang)),總投(tou)資(zi)2,000萬港(gang)(gang)元(合1728.24萬元人(ren)民幣),注冊資(zi)本500萬港(gang)(gang)元,擬定經(jing)營范圍(wei)包括投(tou)資(zi)、有(you)色(se)(se)金(jin)屬復合材料、銅鋁合金(jin)材料等的(de)銷售(shou)。2016年7月,亞(ya)(ya)太(tai)香(xiang)(xiang)港(gang)(gang)在香(xiang)(xiang)港(gang)(gang)特別行政(zheng)區完成(cheng)了注冊登(deng)記手續。

　　石油(you)化(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong):恒逸石化(hua)“石化(hua)+金(jin)融(rong)”雙軌發(fa)展(zhan),增(zeng)發(fa)獲(huo)批文(wen)。2015年(nian)11月(yue)10日公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)發(fa)布(bu)《非(fei)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)開發(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)票預案(an)》,擬以不(bu)低于(yu)(yu)9.65元/股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)(de)價格向特定對(dui)象發(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)不(bu)超過(guo)3.94億股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu),募(mu)集(ji)資(zi)金(jin)總(zong)額(e)不(bu)超過(guo)38億元,將全(quan)部(bu)用于(yu)(yu)文(wen)萊PMB石化(hua)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)建(jian)設。非(fei)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)開發(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)票的(de)(de)(de)申(shen)請已于(yu)(yu)2016年(nian)4月(yue)份(fen)獲(huo)證監(jian)(jian)會審核(he)通(tong)過(guo),并于(yu)(yu)7月(yue)21日收到批文(wen)。為了(le)建(jian)立勞動者與所有(you)(you)者的(de)(de)(de)利益共享機制、完善公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)治(zhi)理結構和(he)激勵體(ti)系,公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)于(yu)(yu)2016年(nian)7月(yue)9日公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)告(gao)了(le)《第一期(qi)員工(gong)(gong)(gong)持(chi)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)計(ji)劃(hua)(草案(an))》。此次員工(gong)(gong)(gong)持(chi)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)計(ji)劃(hua)范圍包括(kuo)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)董監(jian)(jian)高(gao)、公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)及下屬(shu)控(kong)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)子(zi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)正式員工(gong)(gong)(gong)等(共269人,其中董監(jian)(jian)高(gao)12人),擬籌集(ji)資(zi)金(jin)總(zong)額(e)不(bu)超過(guo)9890萬元,通(tong)過(guo)二級市場(chang)購買公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)票鎖定期(qi)為12個(ge)月(yue)。公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)實(shi)施員工(gong)(gong)(gong)持(chi)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)計(ji)劃(hua),彰顯未來(lai)發(fa)展(zhan)信心。按(an)照目(mu)前具有(you)(you)的(de)(de)(de)PTA、PET等產能情況測算,公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)對(dui)主要原材料PX、MEG、苯(ben)年(nian)需求量分別為841萬噸(dun)、85萬噸(dun)、20萬噸(dun)。由于(yu)(yu)對(dui)原材料具有(you)(you)較(jiao)大的(de)(de)(de)依賴性,公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)經(jing)營業績容易(yi)受(shou)到原材料價格和(he)質量的(de)(de)(de)影響(xiang)。公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)投資(zi)建(jian)設文(wen)萊PMB石油(you)化(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)有(you)(you)利于(yu)(yu)解決對(dui)原材料外部(bu)依賴性大的(de)(de)(de)問題,同時向PTA上游石油(you)化(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業擴展(zhan),實(shi)現了(le)“原油(you)-PX-PTA-聚酯(zhi)纖維”全(quan)產業鏈一體(ti)化(hua)經(jing)營,增(zeng)強了(le)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)盈(ying)(ying)利的(de)(de)(de)穩(wen)(wen)定性,使得(de)盈(ying)(ying)利能力也(ye)得(de)以提升。目(mu)前文(wen)萊項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)正在穩(wen)(wen)步(bu)推進過(guo)程當中。為了(le)進一步(bu)增(zeng)加公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)金(jin)融(rong)資(zi)產配置、優化(hua)投資(zi)結構,公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)通(tong)過(guo)間(jian)接全(quan)資(zi)子(zi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)恒逸高(gao)新受(shou)讓控(kong)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)東恒逸集(ji)團(tuan)持(chi)有(you)(you)的(de)(de)(de)浙商銀行(xing)(xing)(xing)2.2億股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)份(fen)。交易(yi)完成(cheng)后,公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)直(zhi)接和(he)間(jian)接持(chi)有(you)(you)浙商銀行(xing)(xing)(xing)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)份(fen)合計(ji)為5.16%,逐步(bu)形成(cheng)“石化(hua)+金(jin)融(rong)”雙軌發(fa)展(zhan)模式。

　　風險(xian)提示:系統性(xing)風險(xian);大宗商(shang)品價(jia)格(ge)下跌;改革進度(du)低于預期。