據工程機(ji)械協會統計(ji)數據,8月納入統計(ji)的25家(jia)主機(ji)廠(chang)挖(wa)機(ji)銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)8714臺,同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)99.5%。其中,國內市場銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)7952臺,同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)106.1%,出口銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)757臺,同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)49.6%。今年(nian)(nian)1-8月份,挖(wa)機(ji)銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)累計(ji)達9.14萬臺,同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)101.1%;超(chao)去年(nian)(nian)全年(nian)(nian)70320臺的銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)達30%。從銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)數據來看,挖(wa)機(ji)銷(xiao)售持(chi)續性良好。

核心觀點

8月中大挖機銷售(shou)增(zeng)速保持領先

從挖(wa)機(ji)(ji)(ji)銷量(liang)結構(gou)看:8月(yue)大挖(wa)(30噸(dun)(dun)以(yi)上)的(de)銷量(liang)為(wei)(wei)1400臺(tai)(tai),同比增(zeng)長(chang)145.6%;中挖(wa)(20-30噸(dun)(dun))銷量(liang)為(wei)(wei)3400臺(tai)(tai),同比增(zeng)長(chang)118.6%;小挖(wa)(小于20噸(dun)(dun))銷量(liang)為(wei)(wei)3900臺(tai)(tai),同比增(zeng)長(chang)75.1%。中大挖(wa)增(zeng)速保(bao)持(chi)領先,主(zhu)要受(shou)益于大宗商品(pin)價格上漲(zhang),煤炭礦山機(ji)(ji)(ji)械等需求(qiu)旺盛。從1-8月(yue)國內累計銷售數據看,小挖(wa)/中挖(wa)/大挖(wa)銷量(liang)分(fen)別為(wei)(wei)5.33萬(wan)臺(tai)(tai)、2.05萬(wan)臺(tai)(tai)和1.21萬(wan)臺(tai)(tai)。我(wo)們維持(chi)前(qian)期(qi)(qi)判斷(duan),本輪工程機(ji)(ji)(ji)械更新與(yu)復蘇(su)周(zhou)期(qi)(qi)持(chi)續性(xing)良好,預計全年挖(wa)機(ji)(ji)(ji)銷量(liang)可(ke)達(da)12萬(wan)臺(tai)(tai)。

中(zhong)報略低于預期,資產質量不(bu)斷提高

上半年(nian)工(gong)程(cheng)機械(xie)(xie)板塊核心主機廠中(zhong)(zhong),三一重(zhong)工(gong)實(shi)現營業(ye)收入192億(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)比增長(chang)71%;徐工(gong)機械(xie)(xie)實(shi)現營業(ye)收入144億(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)比增長(chang)77%;柳工(gong)實(shi)現營業(ye)收入55億(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)比增長(chang)50%;中(zhong)(zhong)聯重(zhong)科(ke)實(shi)現營業(ye)收入128億(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)比增長(chang)42%。工(gong)程(cheng)機械(xie)(xie)主機廠的收入與(yu)(yu)利潤(run)數據同(tong)比都有大(da)幅改(gai)善(shan),這也是與(yu)(yu)銷售數據相(xiang)互印證的。但是三一重(zhong)工(gong)中(zhong)(zhong)報業(ye)績的環比低(di)于(yu)預期使市(shi)場對工(gong)程(cheng)機械(xie)(xie)的景氣持續性(xing)產生分歧。

板(ban)塊龍頭(tou)三(san)一重(zhong)工(gong)除了(le)利潤(run)指標環比低于預(yu)期之外,其余(yu)都符合市場預(yu)期。從(cong)毛(mao)利率來看,從(cong)一季度的32.55%下(xia)滑到(dao)了(le)二季度的27.29%,下(xia)降了(le)5.26個百分點(dian)。這主(zhu)要(yao)源于公(gong)司對長庫齡整機的去化導致的毛(mao)利下(xia)降。隨著應收款和庫存等資(zi)產減值和清理完成(cheng),公(gong)司的經營質量得(de)(de)到(dao)提(ti)升,資(zi)產負債表對利潤(run)表的壓(ya)制得(de)(de)到(dao)緩(huan)解。

市場集中(zhong)度(du)進一步提(ti)升,“以龍為(wei)首”趨勢(shi)明顯

企(qi)業層面結(jie)構顯(xian)示(shi),行業集中(zhong)度(du)正在(zai)提升(sheng)。從增(zeng)速來看,行業龍頭三一重工銷(xiao)量2059臺,單月市(shi)場份額為24%,同(tong)比增(zeng)長136%,穩坐國內挖掘機市(shi)場“頭把交椅”。其(qi)次,徐工和柳工同(tong)比分別增(zeng)長146%和209%。行業集中(zhong)度(du)在(zai)向龍頭傾斜的過程(cheng)中(zhong),未來有望產生中(zhong)國的“卡特彼勒(le)”。投資建議與投資標的

更多信息請進入法鋼耐磨鋼板新聞資訊
//zenggaole.cn